近15a陕西省植被时空变化与影响因素分析          下载免费PDF全文

岳辉  刘英 《干旱区地理》2019,42(2):314-323

利用2000—2014年MODIS/NDVI时间序列数据，采用栅格像元趋势分析、稳定性评价的方法，研究了陕西省近15 a植被的时空变化特征和规律；利用Hurst指数对陕西省植被未来变化趋势进行了预测；并利用相关性分析法分析了NDVI与年均温度和降雨量的关系。结果表明，2000年、2015年陕西省NDVI均值分别为0.4273、0.4942， 15 a来增加了0.067，增长了16.0%，其中陕北地区NDVI增加明显，关中部分地区出现负增长，陕南地区NDVI总体依旧维持在较高水平。陕西省植被变化趋势具有明显的空间差异性，全省植被未变化的占52.0 %，改善部分占44.27 %，退化部分占3.73%，说明15 a间陕西省植被覆盖改善面积大于退化面积，植被状况有所改善；其中陕北地区植被呈明显改善区域面积较大，关中地区植被覆盖面积有所减少，陕南地区植被变化幅度较小。陕西省植被稳定区域占50%以上（0 0.2)，说明15a间陕西省植被较为稳定，变化程度不大；其中陕西省植被最稳定地区主要集中在陕南、延安南部，榆林部分、西安、渭南少部地区变化幅度较大。Hurst指数分析表明陕西省44.54%面积的植被未来有可能面临退化，主要分布在陕北和关中地区的北部，植被未来有可能退化也有可能改善的面积占49.78%，主要分布在延安和陕南地区。陕西省近15 a气温和降水量总体呈增加趋势，增加速率分别为0.48 ℃·(10 a)-1和69.5 mm ( a)-1；相关性分析结果表明，年均降雨量是影响NDVI的主要气象因子，同时陕西省植被变化也受到了退耕还林还草、防沙治沙、生态政治等人为因素的影响。  相似文献   

Estimation of Grassland Production in Central and Eastern Mongolia from 2006 to 2015 via Remote Sensing     

LI Ge  WANG Juanle  WANG Yanjie  WEI Haishuo 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2019,10(6):676-684

Mongolia is an important part of the Belt and Road Initiative “China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor” and a region that has been severely affected by global climate change. Changes in grassland production have had a profound impact on the sustainable development of the region. Our study explored an optimal model for estimating grassland production in Mongolia and discovered its temporal and spatial distributions. Three estimation models were established using a statistical analysis method based on EVI, MSAVI, NDVI, and PsnNet from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing data and measured data. A model evaluation and accuracy comparison showed that an exponential model based on MSAVI was the best simulation (model accuracy 78%). This was selected to estimate the grassland production in central and eastern Mongolia from 2006 to 2015. The results show that the grassland production in the study area had a significantly fluctuating trend for the decade study; a slight overall increasing trend was observed. For the first five years, the grassland production decreased slowly, whereas in the latter five years, significant fluctuations were observed. The grassland production (per unit yield) gradually increased from the southwest to northeast. In most provinces of the study area, the production was above 1000 kg ha ^-1, with the largest production in Hentiy, at 3944.35 kg ha ^-1. The grassland production (total yield) varied greatly among the provinces, with Kent showing the highest production, 2341.76×10 ⁴ t. Results also indicate that the trend in grassland production along the China-Mongolia railway was generally consistent with that of the six provinces studied.  相似文献   

基于手机数据的北京市城市与近郊交互模式挖掘     

彭卉  杜云艳  易嘉伟  刘张  王会蒙 《地球信息科学学报》2019,21(1):97-106

在城镇化进程中,城市与近郊之间通过职住、货运、游憩等活动产生越来越紧密的交互联系,对于这些交互联系的准确识别和定量刻画,是理解城乡空间关系的重要手段,也能为城市的资源有效配置与合理规划提供重要的现状信息。本文通过对全北京在一日之内的手机信令数据所反映的人群移动轨迹的深入分析,融合城市的POI信息形成顾及人类活动时空信息的空间交互类型推断。以北京市为例,对城市中心与近郊之间远距离的强交互进行定性、定量和定位的探索。本文发现了北京市多尺度下空间交互模式和距离衰减规律,判断了城乡异常交互类型,对比了城乡之间和城市内部的交互模式的异同,以及基于交互类型视角提取了城乡异常交互的空间特征。研究认为,基于手机信令数据,利用停留点提取和高斯核密度估计的空间交互类型推断有效地发现了北京市周末的远距离出行类型特点,提取了其空间交互强度和空间特征,揭示了基于人类活动的北京市周末城乡交互模式。  相似文献   

基于改进的向后-向前选择法粗差定位与估值算法     

柴双武  杨晓琴 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(5):538-543

对传统的向后-向前选择法粗差定位方法进行改进，即在原有基础上加入对平差模型的整体检验，计算统计量的相关系数，通过对偏相关系数的检验来定位统计量相关的粗差观测值。通过模拟粗差算例证明，该算法能够准确定位多维粗差，有效改善粗差定位转移的现象，且粗差估值结果比较可靠。  相似文献   

Formation of Carbon-Enhanced Metal-Poor RR Lyrae Stars     

《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2020,44(1):61-69

Carbon-enhanced metal-poor (CEMP) stars are considered to be related to the first generation of stars, and responsible for the chemical evolution of the early Galaxy. More than half of them are in binaries, and could be explained by the binary evolution, but the formation channel of them is still not fully understood. Among the hundreds of CEMP stars, there are nine CEMP RR Lyrae stars identified, and at least seven of which are very likely not binaries. The usual binary star evolution channel is difficult to produce such a single star, particularly that of carbon enrichment. One way in which such a single star might be produced is the merger of a helium white dwarf with a Hertzsprung gap (HG) star. We use a stellar evolution program to calculate the models of the merger remnants, and find that the models can reproduce the observed distribution of these CEMP single RR Lyrae stars in terms of surface temperature, gravity, and carbon abundance. Hence, it is extremely possible that the helium white dwarf and HG star merger model is one of the formation channels of the metal-poor carbon-rich RR Lyrae stars.  相似文献   

基于国家海洋治理和全球气候变化的我国海洋灾害防治          下载免费PDF全文

齐庆华 《海洋开发与管理》2019,36(2):17-23

为建立和完善现代化的海洋灾害防治体系,提高我国海洋治理和应对全球气候变化的能力,文章以全球治理和国家治理为背景,在明确致灾因子、承灾体、灾害以及灾害风险和管理等基本概念及其内涵的基础上,分析全球气候变化背景下我国海洋灾害及其风险的特征以及海洋灾害防治的关键性和基础性科学问题,并提出我国构建海洋灾害防治体系的建议。研究结果表明:在全球气候变化的影响下,我国沿海地区的海洋灾害风险复杂多变且有所提升;提出以群-环-域为主体的体系架构,研究全球气候变化与区域海洋的响应和反馈、全球气候变化背景下海洋灾害与风险的特征和规律以及综合海洋灾害风险评估和海洋灾害防治等问题;在我国构建海洋灾害防治体系的过程中,应加强科学研究以及技术和信息支撑、促进区域和全球联动联防以及提高全社会对海洋灾害的认知和防范水平。  相似文献   

Research on the Methods of Performance Monitoring and Evaluation for Active Hydrogen Maserstwo     

《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2019,43(2):292-304

Active hydrogen maser is the main frequency standard for establishing and maintaining the time scale. It has the characteristics of high short-term stability and low phase noise. At present, it plays an increasingly important role in the international atomic time (TAI) and various local time scales. Firstly, in combination with the internal state parameters of an active hydrogen maser, the correlation between the internal state parameters and the comparison data of a hydrogen maser is analyzed, and a method for the performance monitoring of a hydrogen maser is proposed. Secondly, according to the characteristics of hydrogen maser performance, a method for evaluating the performance of a hydrogen maser is given. The hydrogen maser performance includes mainly two aspects, namely the frequency stability and predictability. The performances of two types of active hydrogen masers (CH1-75 and MHM-2010) are evaluated by this method. The correlation analysis of the atomic clock state parameters and comparison data shows that the state parameter monitoring can effectively predict the variation of the hydrogen maser performance. The evaluation results of atomic clock frequency stability and predictability show that the atomic clock with a higher medium-and-long term frequency stability has a better predictability. There are two methods for the predictability evaluation, one is based on the data published by BIPM (Bureau International des Poids et Measures), and another one is based on the quadratic model. Both methods are consistent with the weights published by BIPM. Therefore, the two methods can be used as a quantitative method to evaluate the predictability of a hydrogen maser.  相似文献   

基于历史TLE的空间目标轨道预报误差演化规律研究     

许晓丽  熊永清 《天文学报》2019,60(4):26-38

北美防空司令部(North American Aerospace Defense Command, NORAD)发布的双行根数(Two Line Element, TLE)是广大航天工作者最常用的轨道根数,与其对应的轨道模型是SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbation Version 4/Simplified Deep-space Perturbation Version 4)解析模型.由于TLE中并没有包含相应的轨道精度信息,编目轨道的应用范围受到很大的限制.基于Space-Track网站发布的历史TLE数据和配套的SGP4/SDP4动力学模型,采用定轨标预报的方法统计并生成了大量目标轨道的预报误差,通过对预报轨道的时间区间划分给出了每个目标的预报误差随预报时间变化的拟合系数,并进一步对不同类型轨道预报误差的演化规律和特征进行了分类讨论,给出了4种轨道类型目标的轨道预报误差随时间演化的平均解析模型,为拓展双行根数的应用提供有价值的参考.  相似文献   

Study of Star/Galaxy Classification Based on the XGBoost Algorithm     

《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2019,43(4):539-548

Machine learning has achieved great success in many areas today. The lifting algorithm has a strong ability to adapt to various scenarios with a high accuracy, and has played a great role in many fields. But in astronomy, the application of lifting algorithms is still rare. In response to the low classification accuracy of the dark star/galaxy source set in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), a new research result of machine learning, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), has been introduced. The complete photometric data set is obtained from the SDSS-DR7, and divided into a bright source set and a dark source set according to the star magnitude. Firstly, the ten-fold cross-validation method is used for the bright source set and the dark source set respectively, and the XGBoost algorithm is used to establish the star/galaxy classification model. Then, the grid search and other methods are used to adjust the XGBoost parameters. Finally, based on the galaxy classification accuracy and other indicators, the classification results are analyzed, by comparing with the models of function tree (FT), Adaptive boosting (Adaboost), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), Stacked Denoising AutoEncoders (SDAE), and Deep Belief Nets (DBN). The experimental results show that, the XGBoost improves the classification accuracy of galaxies in the dark source classification by nearly 10% as compared to the function tree algorithm, and improves the classification accuracy of sources with the darkest magnitudes in the dark source set by nearly 5% as compared to the function tree algorithm. Compared with other traditional machine learning algorithms and deep neural networks, the XGBoost also has different degrees of improvement.  相似文献   

大连市大气污染物质量浓度与气溶胶光学厚度的相关性分析     

顾吉林  汤宏山  刘淼  耿杨  于月  陶涛 《地理科学》2019,39(3):516-523

分别对2015年6~12月和2016年6~12月大连地区的大气污染物PM2.5、PM10、SO₂、NO₂、CO和O₃的浓度数据进行数据统计分析,基于ENVI软件平台利用MODIS数据反演大连地区的气溶胶光学厚度,通过回归建模研究气溶胶光学厚度与大连地区10个地面监测站点的大气污染物PM2.5、PM10、SO₂、NO₂、CO和O₃的浓度数据的相关性。回归建模以气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）为自变量,以大气污染物PM2.5、PM10、SO₂、NO₂、CO和O₃为因变量,在SPSS软件中分别选取线性、对数、三次、乘幂、指数5种函数类型进行研究,通过对比回归模型的拟合优度R²,选择最优拟合模型,探讨利用遥感数据反演气溶胶光学厚度监测大气污染的相关性。结果表明：气溶胶光学厚度与NO₂、PM2.5和PM10的最优拟合模型均为三次模型,其拟合优度R²分别是0.685、0.801和0.845;与O₃和SO₂的最优拟合模型为指数模型,其R²为0.367和0.482;与CO的最优拟合模型为对数模型,其拟合优度R²为0.810。该结果为分析大气气溶胶污染来源以及治理提供了数据。  相似文献